Giáo sư Tyler Cowen nói gì về vấn đề "Nga và Belarus hợp nhất"?

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A possible Chinese move against Taiwan has received a lot of attention, but a Russian union with Belarus could be a greater danger. Belarus might even agree to such a proposition, so it would be hard for NATO or the U.S. to decry (chê bai, nói xấu, gièm pha, công kích) it as a coercive (ép buộc, cưỡng bức) invasion (xâm lược). Yet such a Russian expansion (bành trướng) could upend political stability (ổn định chính trị) in Europe.

If Russia and Belarus became a single political unit, there would be only a thin band of land, called the Suwalki Gap, connecting the Baltics to the rest of the European Union. Unfortunately, that same piece of territory would stand in the way of the new, larger Russia connecting with the now-cut off Russian region of Kaliningrad. Over the long term, could the Baltics maintain their independence (độc lập)? If not, the European Union would show it is entirely a toothless (không có răng) entity, unable to guarantee the sovereignty (độc lập có chủ quyền) of its members.

Even if there were no formal political union between Russia and Belarus, the territorial continuity and integrity of the EU could soon be up for grabs. The EU has more at stake in an independent Belarus than it likes to admit.