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07 May, 2018
các cửa hàng truyền thống sẽ dễ thở hơn khi tiền thuê bất động sản giảm,
các cửa hàng online (qua mạng) sẽ lại đắt đỏ hơn khi phí quảng cáo (trả cho google, facebook...) và phí vận chuyển tăng...
đây mới là tạm phân tích với dữ liệu năm 2017, khi thương mại điện tử mới chỉ chiếm 10% tổng doanh thu bán lẻ toàn cầu, trong tương lai, khi tỷ lệ này tăng, thì những thách thức này còn cao nữa...
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Commercial rents are falling, just as ad rates and shipping costs make e-commerce prohibitive.
...In the first six months of 2017 alone, ad rates on Facebook are said to have more than doubled (chỉ riêng 6 tháng đầu năm 2017, phí quảng cáo facebook được cho là tăng hơn gấp đôi). A glance at Facebook's quarterly earnings shows that in North America, user growth has just about flatlined (đi ngang) while revenue per user (doanh thu trên mỗi người dùng) continues to surge (dâng lên, tràn (như) sóng), implying that the cost of reaching users is rising at a rapid rate.
The other challenge facing e-commerce firms, which is a broader challenge in the economy right now, is the rising cost of shipping. UPS is adjusting its business model, including raising rates, because shipping to home consumers isn't as efficient as shipping to businesses. Higher shipping costs are plaguing Amazon as well, which is one of the reasons it's raising pricing for Amazon Prime membership by 20 percent in May.
…the future of the relative cost advantage between e-commerce and physical retail is looking less clear. For much of physical retail, there’s the prospect of falling rents, making running a brick-and-mortar store more viable. For e-commerce, it’s a surge in ad rates, or customer acquisition costs, plus shipping bottlenecks that will make “free shipping” more onerous (nặng nề, khó nhọc, phiền hà) to offer. And profit margins on an e-commerce sale were lower than the profit margin on an equivalent brick and mortar sale to begin with. All of this is happening when e-commerce is only around 10 percent of total retail sales. Presumably, these challenges will be even greater as that share grows.
In his view, we should look for a renewed focus on bricks and mortar. Here is the full column.
Tags: economics
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