Journey in Life: economics
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Monday, September 21, 2020

"Bữa tiệc trà" lịch sử ở Boston

"Boston Tea Party",

đêm 16/12/1773, một số cư dân Boston, tự xưng là "Những người con của tự do", đã cải trang thành những thổ dân da đỏ Mohawk, dùng xuồng nhỏ chèo thật nhẹ mà áp sát mạn ba chiếc thuyền buồm chất đầy những thùng gỗ đựng trà, vừa vượt Đại Tây Dương từ Anh sang. Họ leo lên thuyền và trong 180 phút sau đó đã ném tổng cộng 342 thùng trà xuống biển.

Sự kiện "Tiệc trà Boston" vẫn được tuyên truyền/dạy rằng là hành động phản đối Đạo luật Trà do Quốc hội Anh ban hành tháng 5/1773, thuế má quá cao,

thật ra, là thuế quá thấp, đặc biệt có lợi cho công ty đông ấn - như một phiên bản tập đoàn các chuỗi cửa hàng bán chè của thế kỷ 18 - công ty từ nay được bán trực tiếp tới thuộc địa, ko phải qua các thương nhân ở thị trường đấu giá, luật chơi mới sẽ đẩy các thương nhân nhỏ (trung gian) ra khỏi thị trường, họ sợ rằng những gì xảy ra ở bengal (hạn hán mất mùa, nhưng vẫn thu thuế cao, kiểm soát thương mại trong vùng) sẽ lại xảy ra ở xứ thuộc địa mỹ, sợ rằng ko chỉ dừng ở chè, rồi sẽ là kiểm soát cả các hàng hóa thiết yếu khác,

"buổi tiệc" này, cuộc biểu tình này là hành động chống lại sự độc quyền  của công ty đông ấn mà thôi ;)
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...In the 1770s, the tea trade was a highly regulated (điều tiết chặt chẽ) global business (kinh doanh toàn cầu). The East India Company, founded in 1600, brought tea to London from China, but it wasn’t allowed to sell direct. It had to auction its tea to middlemen in London, who would then sell it in the colonies. As a result, there was a thriving colonial business of tea merchants, including many key political leaders in port cities across America - men such as John Hancock, who would later become leaders in the revolution (cách mạng). These merchants sold East India tea, but they also sold rival tea, sometimes smuggled (buôn lậu).

The East India Company was a stagnant (đình trệ, đình đốn) and corrupt monopoly (độc quyền). Insiders (người nội bộ) manipulated (thao túng) the company’s stock (cổ phiếu của công ty), and officers used their position in the company to retire with massive wealth, with nouveau riche (giàu xổi) named “Nabobs” buying seats in Parliament. The company was so systemically important to British finance that falls in its stock caused banking crises. It was a Too Big to Fail corporation. By 1772, it was borrowing from the Bank of England to stay afloat.

Prime Minister Lord Frederick North sought to foist the financial problems of this giant corporation onto the colonies with the Tea Act. He allowed the company to sell tea directly to the colonies, instead of on the London auction market. He also gave the corporation the right to ship its tea at a low tax rate, while imposing a tax on those who imported non-company tea. The East India Company would turn into a sort of 1770s version of a chain store.

This seemed like a perfect solution. Company tea would be cheap and irresistible to tea-loving Americans and meddlesome middlemen would get wiped out. What could go wrong? Who didn’t love cheap tea?

But colonists were afraid, because they knew what happened when the company monopolized a trade. In 1769-1770, just a few years before the uprising in Boston, there was a drought in a company-ruled province, the Bengal province in India. During the drought, the corporation continued to collect heavy taxes, control trade in the region and store grains for its own soldiers. Roughly a million people died in the resulting famine. William Bolts, an ex-company merchant, blamed corporate officers who, “after exhibiting such scenes of barbarity (hành động dã man) as can scarcely be paralleled in the history of any country, have returned to England loaded with wealth.”

Across the British empire, including in the far-flung outpost of North America, colonists feared that what happened in Bengal could as easily happen to them. First tea, then more vital materials. But beyond fears over national security, there was more to the resistance to a monopoly organized around cheap tea. Trade, money, and corporate power, was the center of colonial politics.

Bài trước: Lớn chuyện rồi

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Điện thoại 5G có đáng không?

chẳng đáng đâu,

ko nhanh hơn 4g là bao nhiêu, và cái nhanh nhất thì lại còn tùy thuộc vào mật độ đô thị nữa (hạn chế về tín hiệu), tình hình thực tế ngay tại hàn quốc đấy nhé
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…Samsung, which makes both handsets as well as 5G network equipment, told investors on its own call that it expects its 5G business in South Korea to “shrink somewhat compared to last year.”

That last revelation is sobering. South Korea was the first market to deploy 5G services on a wide basis. Service launched in April 2019, but by year’s end consumers already were complaining that it didn’t live up to the hype (quảng cáo thổi phồng, cường điệu). Part of the problem is that services marketed under the 5G label can vary widely in terms of speed and availability. Some aren’t much faster than existing 4G networks. And the fastest—including those using millimeter wave technology—currently are available only in certain dense urban areas due to their signal limitations.

Meanwhile, 5G devices remain expensive. Samsung’s new 5G phones range in price from $999 to $1,399.

Vì sao nước Mỹ tụt hậu về công nghệ 5G?

vì chuỗi băng thông rộng cần thiết để làm nên một mạng thành công không được dành cho mục đích thương mại, mà lại... dành riêng cho quân đội...
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No American company makes the devices that transmit high-speed wireless signals. Huawei is the clear leader in the field; the Swedish company Ericsson is a distant second; and the Finnish company Nokia is third.

It is almost surprising that the Defense Department allowed the report to be published at all, given the board’s remarkably blunt assessment (nhận xét thẳng thừng đáng chú ý) of the nation’s lack of innovation and what it said was one of the biggest impediments to rolling out 5G in the United States: the Pentagon itself.


To work best, 5G needs what’s called low-band spectrum, because it allows signals to travel farther than high-band spectrum. The farther the signal can travel, the less infrastructure has to be deployed.

In China and even in Europe, governments have reserved low-band spectrum for 5G, making it efficient and less costly to blanket their countries with high-speed wireless connectivity. In the United States, the low-band spectrum is reserved for the military.

The difference this makes is stark (lộ rõ hẳn ra, nổi bật hẳn ra; trần trụi). Google conducted an experiment for the board, placing 5G transmitters on 72,735 towers and rooftops. Using high-band spectrum, the transmitters covered only 11.6 percent of the United States population at a speed of 100 megabits per second and only 3.9 percent at 1 gigabit per second. If the same transmitters could use low-band spectrum, 57.4 percent of the population would be covered at 100 megabits per second and 21.2 percent at 1 gigabit per second.

In other words, the spectrum that has been allotted in the United States for commercial 5G communications makes 5G significantly slower and more expensive to roll out than just about anywhere else.

That is a commercial disincentive and puts the United States at a distinct disadvantage.

Nên cấm đi xe đạp trong thành phố

vì quá nhiều tai nạn, người đi xe đạp bị chết vì bùng nổ thương mại điện tử (giao hàng nhanh), chuyện của thành phố new york...
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“New Yorkers on bikes (người đi xe đạp) are being killed (giết) at an alarming rate (mức độ đáng báo động),” said Marco Conner, the interim co-executive director of Transportation Alternatives, an advocacy group (nhóm vận động).

Across the city, 14 cyclists have been killed in crashes (va chạm, tai nạn, đâm nhau) this year, four more than all of last year, according to city officials (quan chức thành phố). New York’s streets have seen an increase in bicycling while also becoming more perilous (hiểm nghèo, hiểm họa), in part because of surging truck traffic fueled by the booming e-commerce industry.

The mayor (thị trưởng/chủ tịch thành phố) himself acknowledged (thừa nhận) on Monday that the city was facing an “emergency.” (tình trạng khẩn cấp)

Thêm khẳng định điều đã biết

thay đổi trong cơ cấu công nghiệp - mất/phá sản các doanh nghiệp sản xuất (hàng hóa) khiến các cặp vợ chồng bất ổn về tài chính, và từ đó... trì hoãn sinh con
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In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists (nhà khoa học xã hội) have anticipated (dự đoán) that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur (báo trước, điềm báo) a reversal (đảo ngược, cơ cấu đảo chiều) of declining fertility trends (xu hướng giảm khả năng sinh sản). However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation (lời giải thích về kinh tế học) for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes (thay đổi cơ cấu) in U.S. labor markets (thị trường lao động) have prolonged  (kéo dài) the financial uncertainty (bất ổn tài chính) that leads women and couples to delay (lùi, hoãn) or forgo (thôi,  bỏ, kiêng) childbearing (sự sinh đẻ). Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006–2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition—specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses—have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time—in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate (dao động) with economic cycles (chu kỳ kinh tế) —further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

Bài trước: Lạ thật

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Lạ thật

lá cờ (quốc gia) của thổ dân úc lại thuộc sở hữu tư nhân của nghệ sĩ sáng tác, và điều này tạo ra bao phiều toái về (tiền, chi phí, tranh chấp) bản quyền...
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It was created in 1971 by an artist (nghệ sĩ) named Harold Thomas and went onto to become culturally accepted (được chấp nhận về mặt văn hóa) as the flag of the Aboriginal (thổ dân) people. And then as above, went onto being proclaimed (công bố, tuyên bố) a national flag (lá cờ quốc gia) by the government (chính quyền).

Unfortunately, since then, Harold Thomas has licensed the flag to various private agencies. One of the licenses was exclusive (độc quyền) to a clothing label, which now means that no other Aboriginal business can print clothes with the flag on it without paying royalties (chi phí bản quyền). (Sitting around 20%) A lot of Aboriginals feel dismay at the current situation of the licensing.

...I am rather free market orientated and do respect the artists desires.

But, the situation is rather unique, I can’t seem to find any other examples in the world of a nations/cultures flag being owned by an individual.

The creator has no intention to relinquish (từ bỏ) the copyright, so movements have already sprung up.

Bài trước: Lớn chuyện rồi

Lớn chuyện rồi

Epic Games ra mắt phiên bản mới của trò Fortnite, trong đó người chơi có thể mua đồ và trả tiền trực tiếp cho epic, bỏ qua hệ thống thanh toán ở app store của apple (vốn lấy 30% doanh thu năm đầu tiên),

apple cấm trò chơi, và epic kiện ra tòa án chống độc quyền...
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Last week, powerful video game publisher and software developer Epic Games introduced a new version of its Fortnite video game for the iPhone. The key change was that players could bypass (đi vòng hoặc tránh cái gì; dùng đường vòng; (nghĩa bóng) bỏ qua (một quy tắc, thủ tục) hoặc lờ đi không hỏi ý kiến (ai) để hành động cho nhanh; phớt lờ) Apple’s payment system (hệ thống thanh toán) for in-game purchases (mua sắm trong trò chơi), and use a proprietary (thuộc chủ, thuộc quyền sở hữu) Epic payment option instead. Such a move breached (vi phạm) Apple’s terms (điều khoản) for its app store, because Apple requires (yêu cầu) anyone who makes an app for the iPhone to use the Apple payments system. Such a requirement is how the corporation makes money directly from the app store; Apple’s payment system charges a 30% tax for any revenue (doanh thu) generated by any iPhone app during its first year. Apple’s control over its app store has become a source of controversy (nguồn gây tranh cãi), mostly because the corporation exploits (khai thác) its power over iPhones to extract (bòn, rút) high fees from developers.

During the Congressional hearings (phiên điều trần tại quốc hội) over the market power (sức mạnh thị trường) of large technology firms, Apple CEO Tim Cook insisted that Apple had little market power over mobile apps, because developers and consumers could always switch over to different types of phones or platforms on which to create software. Epic’s attempt to restructure terms with Apple is a great test case for Cook’s argument. One would expect, based on Cook’s views, that developers of popular apps have leverage against Apple, if Apple had little market power over app stores. Certainly, Epic’s Fortnite is popular, a massive multi-billion dollar game, as close to a must-have app as possible.

Without blinking (không chớp mắt, ngay lập tức), however, Apple blocked Epic’s app from its store, which shows that Cook’s argument about a competitive market (thị trường cạnh tranh) was just wrong. No one, no matter how powerful, has any bargaining leverage with Apple over its app store, and competition is certainly not disciplining the iPhone maker. Epic CEO Tim Sweeney responded to Apple’s ban not with a modification of its app, but with an antitrust suit (and a parallel though less important suit against Google).

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Sao cứ mãi đè dân thu phí BOT?

chính quyền của thủ tướng Hun Sen mua lại một cây cầu từ tỷ phú Ly Yong Phat để ai cũng có thể được đi (miễn phí) này...
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Prime Minister Hun Sen posted on his Facebook yesterday to say the coastal (duyên hải) bridge, which links Cambodia with Thailand, would be free to use for everyone (miễn phí cho tất cả mọi người/toàn dân) from today.

...Last month the government also took over the management (tiếp quản việc quản lý) of a bridge belonging to the LYP Group on the Tonle Sap River in Phnom Penh.

Koh Kong Governor Mithona Phouthorng said the move would make it easier for people to travel and enable more vendors to cross into Thailand to buy and sell products.

“It will benefit everybody,” she said. “Provincial authorities will make sure the firm no longer takes toll fees (phí cầu đường) from bridge users.”

Bài trước: Dở à

Monday, September 7, 2020

Không đỡ được

nền kinh tế ngày càng tự động hóa và robot hóa, công nhân thất nghiệp, biểu tình hàng loạt, nghiên cứu ở china...
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A handful of studies have investigated (điều tra) the effects (tác động) of robots on workers in advanced economies. According to a recent report from the World Bank (2016), 1.8 billion jobs in developing countries are susceptible (dễ bị ảnh hưởng, dễ bị tổn thương) to automation (tự động hóa). Given the inability of labor markets to adjust to rapid changes, there is a growing concern that the effect of automation and robotization in emerging economies may increase inequality (bất bình đẳng) and social unrest (bất ổn xã hội). Yet, we still know very little about the impact of robots in developing countries. In this paper we analyze (phân tích) the effects of exposure to industrial robots in the Chinese labor market. Using aggregate data from Chinese prefectural cities (2000-2016) and individual longitudinal data from China, we find a large negative impact of robot exposure on employment and wages of Chinese workers. Effects are concentrated in the state-owned sector and are larger among low-skilled, male, and prime-age and older workers. Furthermore, we find evidence that exposure to robots affected internal mobility and increased the number of labor-related strikes (đình công) and protests (biểu tình).

Sunday, September 6, 2020

Dở à

tăng chi tiêu công sẽ làm tăng gdp = tăng thuế làm tăng gdp, chuyện vô lý ngớ ngẩn,
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Identity economics is bad economics. The excellent Nick Rowe puts it well:

Animals can be divided into Carnivores and Non-Carnivores: A = C + NC. Therefore, if we add some wolves (sói) to an island of sheep (cừu), the number of animals on that island will increase.

It’s easy to see why that argument might not be right. Wolves kill sheep. But if you didn’t know that fact about wolves and sheep, the argument looks very appealing. But the equation A = C + NC tells us absolutely nothing about the world; it’s an accounting identity that is true by definition. The only thing it tells you is how I have chosen to divide up the world into parts. And I can choose an infinite number of different ways to divide the world up into parts.

Here are two more examples:
1. Y = C + I + G + X – M. Therefore an increase in Government spending will increase GDP.

2. Y = C + S + T. Therefore an increase in Taxes will increase GDP.

My guess is that you are much more uncomfortable with the second of those two examples than the first. You have probably seen the first argument before, but have probably not seen the second. But they are both equally correct accounting identities and are both equally rubbish (rác rưởi, vật bỏ đi, vật vô giá trị, ý kiến bậy bạ, chuyện vô lý ngớ ngẩn, chuyện nhảm nhí) arguments.

As Nick notes, the identities we write down frame our thinking. Write an identity in a different way to check whether the frame really fits.

Chống ùn tắc giao thông ở Hoàn Kiếm

tính phí những ai vào hồ giờ cao điểm nhé, new york làm rồi đấy...
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New York recently approved congestion (ùn tắc) pricing, a plan to make it more expensive to drive into the heart (trung tâm) of Manhattan. Officials in New Jersey are enraged (nổi giận, nổi khùng; hóa điên) and have griped (phàn nàn, kêu ca), half-jokingly, that it will cost less to travel to California than to cross the Hudson River.

And they are vowing revenge (trả thù).

The mayor of Jersey City suggested that New Jerseyans should toll New Yorkers entering their state.

Lương của Thủ tướng năm 2020 là bao nhiêu?

nếu ít quá, có thể bắt chước thủ tướng bhutan, cuối tuần làm bác sĩ mổ phẫu thuật cứu người :)
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“Some people play golf, some do archery (bắn cung), and I like to operate (phẫu thuật),” Tshering told AFP as he tended to patients (chăm sóc bệnh nhân) one Saturday morning at Jigme Dorji Wangchuck national referral hospital, describing his moonlighting (làm đêm ngoài giờ) medical work as a “de-stresser”.

“I will continue doing this until I die and I miss not being able to be here every day,” he added. “Whenever I drive to work on weekdays, I wish I could turn left towards the hospital.”

Far from finding the two roles hard to juggle, Tshering said he had found that there was unexpected crossover between prime minister and surgeon. “At the hospital I scan and treat patients. In the government, I scan the health of policies and try to make them better,” he said. He has also put healthcare reform at the heart of his political agenda.

Saturday, September 5, 2020

Chẳng tốt đẹp gì đâu

trợ cấp của chính phủ cho nông dân tăng mạnh,

thu nhập bình quân một hộ gia đình nông dân ở Mỹ đã tăng 24% từ năm 2018 (lên tới gần 90k usd), gấp rưỡi thu nhập bình quân của toàn nước Mỹ.

-> trump mua phiếu thôi
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I did a recent post discussing Trump’s payroll tax cut (not authorized by Congress), which begins two months before the election. Yesterday, the CDC said we should prepare for a vaccine rollout two days before the election. (Perhaps justified, but the timing is suspicious (đáng nghi).) Meanwhile Trump is splashing money (vung tiền) on farmers who don’t need it:

Farmers in the US are in line for record handouts (trợ cấp kỷ lục) from Washington this year, sparking (gợi lên, làm nhen nhóm lên, lóe lên) accusations (buộc tội, kết án) that Donald Trump is trying to buy the agricultural vote ahead of the November election. . . .

The surge (sự tăng mạnh) in government support for farmers comes as Mr Trump’s presidential campaign attempts to pull off a string of victories in November in farm states such as Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, which helped propel him to the White House in 2016.

Neil Hamilton, a professor specialising in agricultural law at Drake University in Iowa, said: “It’s an amazingly egregious (quá xá, đại, chí) example of vote-buying.” . . .

Median income for farm households has increased by 24 per cent since 2018 to $89,674, reversing a trend of declining income, “largely because of increases in government payments to farm operations”, the ERS said.

Bài trước: Trump sai rồi

Friday, September 4, 2020

Trump sai rồi

nói rằng tăng thuế nhập khẩu thì đối tác thương mại của mỹ phải trả tiền, nhưng, với ví dụ máy giặt và máy sấy ở mỹ, đó là người tiêu dùng, thuế thu về 82 triệu usd, thì giá tăng 1,5 tỷ usd, tạo ra 1.800 việc làm mới, nhưng chi phí quá cao: 817k usd mỗi việc làm,
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Research to be released on Monday by the economists Aaron Flaaen, of the Fed, and Ali Hortacsu and Felix Tintelnot, of Chicago, estimates that consumers bore between 125 percent and 225 percent of the costs of the washing machine tariffs. The authors calculate that the tariffs brought in $82 million to the United States Treasury, while raising consumer prices by $1.5 billion.

And while the tariffs did encourage foreign companies to shift more of their manufacturing to the United States and created about 1,800 new jobs, the researchers conclude that those came at a steep cost: about $817,000 per job.

Mr. Trump imposed the tariffs last year in response to a complaint by the Michigan-based manufacturer Whirlpool, which claimed foreign competitors were cornering the American washing machine market with cheaper models that threatened domestic manufacturers. The tariffs started at 20 percent per imported washer and rose to 50 percent late in the year, after total imports exceeded a quota set by the administration.

Dân chủ có sướng không?

hơn 270 nhân viên bầu cử ở indonesia đã chết vì quá sức do phải đếm phiếu bầu (tháng 4/2019)...
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Ten days after Indonesia held the world’s biggest single-day elections, officials say more than 270 election staff have died, mostly of fatigue-related illneses caused by long hours of work counting millions of ballot papers by hand.

The 17 April elections were the first time the country of 260 million people combined the presidential vote with national and regional parliamentary ones, with an aim to cut costs.

Voting was largely peaceful and was estimated to have drawn 80% of the total 193 million voters, who each had to punch up to five ballot papers in more than 800,000 polling stations.

But conducting the eight-hour vote in a country that stretches more than 5,000km (3,000 miles) from its western to eastern tips has been a huge logistical feat and deadly for some of the more than seven million officials, who had to count ballot papers by hand.

Bản lĩnh chính trị của các TGĐ

57% TGĐ ở Mỹ theo đường lối đảng cộng hòa,
TGĐ trung vị chuyển tới 75% tài trợ chính trị cho đảng viên cộng hòa, 
các công ty do TGĐ cộng hòa lãnh đạo có lượng tài sản gấp đôi các công ty do TGĐ dân chủ lãnh đạo, ít minh bạch hơn đối với cổ đông trong việc khai báo tài trợ chính trị của mình,
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We find that more than 57% of CEOs are Republicans [defined by 2/3 or more campaign contributions to Republicans], 19% are Democrats…and the rest are Neutral [do not contribute 2/3 of their campaign spending to either of the two major parties]. Therefore, Republican CEOs are more than three times as Democratic CEOs. Furthermore, Republican CEOs lead companies with almost twice the asset value of companies led by Democratic CEOs.

That is from 2000-2017, across the S&P 1500. And:
We show that the median CEO directs 75% of his or her total contributions to Republicans.

And:
We find that companies led by Republican CEOs are less transparent to their investors on whether how, and how much they spend on politics.

The most Republican-leaning sectors are energy (89.1%), manufacturing, and chemicals. Business equipment and telecoms are the least-leaning R to D sectors for their CEOs, though still Republican by clear margins. In the Northeast and West the number of Democratic CEOS has almost caught up to the Republicans. As for female CEOs, they lean Republican 34.3% to Democratic 32.3%, a small margin but still more Republican donors.

Thôi rồi lượm ơi

trí tuệ nhân tạo học và sẽ cho ra các quyết định/chính sách kinh tế trong đời thực,

các nhà kinh tế thất nghiệp hết... :)
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The moonshot goal of this project is to build a reinforcement learning framework that will recommend economic policies that drive social outcomes in the real world, such as improving sustainability, productivity, and equality. To achieve this, we’ll need to advance AI, challenge conventional economic thinking, and create AI that can ground and guide policy making. While none of these tasks are easy, together, they make for a true moonshot.

This moonshot is both ambitious and necessary, and more timely than ever given economic challenges around the world. Importantly, the AI Economist is a powerful optimization framework that can objectively automate policy design and evaluation. This will allow economists and policy experts to focus on the end goal of improving social welfare.

Given the social and ethical implications that economic policies can have, we believe it is essential to have transparency in the process. By open sourcing the AI Economist, not only do we empower collaboration from all over the world but we also enable unfettered review of policy simulations.

The key ingredients are:
A high-fidelity simulation that should be grounded in data, and aligned with economic theory as well as with social and ethical values. Simulations should not be prohibitively expensive to run, and should be maintainable and modular.

AI policy models should be effective in a wide range of scenarios, explainable, and robust to economic shocks.

The simulation and policy models should be calibrated against real-world data and, as much as possible, validated in human-subject studies.

Không ngoài dự đoán

các tập đoàn dược phẩm lớn biết trước trump sẽ thắng rồi,

giá cổ phiếu, tuy có cả một thời gian dài rất èo uột, nhưng chỉ ba ngày trước bầu cử, đã tăng đột biến..., theo nghiên cứu hồi tháng 3 năm 2019,
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On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election (bầu cử tổng thống), the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets (thị trường dự đoán chính trị), were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements (biến động) in specific stock prices (giá cổ phiếu) foreshadowed (báo hiệu, báo trước, là điềm của) the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies (công ty dược phẩm), which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant (có ý nghĩa về mặt thống kê) and economically meaningful (ý nghĩa về kinh tế) and robust (mạnh mẽ) to various event-study methodologies. (phương pháp nghiên cứu sự kiện) These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate (đoán trước) the election outcome (kết quả bầu cử).

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Hiểu lầm về Facebook

công tỵ gồm nhiều sản phẩm/dịch vụ nhỏ, phải cạnh tranh bằng chết với ít nhất 3-4 đối thủ lớn trong mỗi dịch vụ của mình,

chứ có phải độc quyền quái đâu,

gần như toàn bộ doanh thu của facebook là từ quảng cáo kỹ thuật số, và hầu hết các ước tính đều cho rằng thị phần của facebook ở mỹ chỉ là 20% thôi,
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The first misunderstanding (hiểu lầm) is about Facebook itself and the competitive dynamics in which we operate. We are a large company made up of many smaller pieces. All of our products and services fight for customers. Each one has at least three or four competitors with hundreds of millions, if not billions, of users. In photo and video-sharing, we compete against services like YouTube, Snapchat, Twitter, Pinterest and TikTok, an emerging competitor.

In messaging, we’re not even the leader in the top three markets — China, Japan and, by our estimate, the United States — where we compete with Apple’s iMessage, WeChat, Line and Microsoft’s Skype. Globally, the context in which social media must be understood, China alone has several large social media companies, including powerhouses like Tencent and Sina. It will seem perverse to people in Europe, and certainly in China, to see American policymakers talking about dismantling one of America’s biggest global players.

In this competitive environment, it is hard to sustain the claim that Facebook is a monopoly (độc quyền). Almost all of our revenue comes from digital advertising (quảng cáo kỹ thuật số), and most estimates say Facebook’s share is about 20 percent of the United States online ad market, which means 80 percent of all digital ads happen off our platforms.

Tóm lại, đừng có húng

San Marino được độc lập khỏi Đế chế La Mã từ thế kỷ thứ 4, vua la mã ko nghĩ rằng nó có thể tồn tại lâu,

ấy thế mà, San Marino giờ đua tài ở Eurovision còn Đế chế La Mã thì mất tiêu :)
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Monaco was granted sovereignty (chủ quyền) in the 1860s by Emperor Napoleon III of France, deposed (truất phế, hạ bệ) a few years later. San Marino received its independence (độc lập) from the Roman Empire (đế chế la mã) in the 4th Century, while Andorra was split off from the long forgotten Kingdom of Aragon in the 13th century. None of these great potentates (kẻ thống trị, vua chuyên quyền (có quyền hành trực tiếp đối với nhân dân của mình)) would ever have imagined that the tiny stubs of countries they took pity on would have legacies (di sản) much longer than their own. Yet today, San Marino competes in Eurovision and the Roman Empire does not.