theo giáo sư tyler cowen thì trung quốc (về lâu dài) sẽ thiệt hơn,
nếu có chỉ trích chính sách của trump thì cần tập trung vào việc đề phòng trung quốc sẽ làm gì khi bị dồn vào chân tường, chứ không phải việc mỹ thiếu sức mạnh đàm phán,
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…there are well-done studies showing that the recent tariffs have translated into higher prices for U.S. consumers. I am not contesting that research. The question is whether those studies give sufficient weight to all relevant variables for the longer run.
To see why the full picture is more complicated, let’s say the U.S. slaps tariffs on the industrial inputs (whether materials or labor) it is buying from China. It is easy to see the immediate chain of higher costs for the U.S. businesses translating into higher prices for U.S. consumers, and that is what the afore-mentioned studies are picking up. But keep in mind China won’t be supplying those inputs forever, especially if the tariffs remain. Within a few years, a country such as Vietnam will provide the same products, perhaps at cheaper prices, because Vietnam has lower wages. So the costs to U.S. consumers are temporary (cái thiệt của người tiêu dùng mỹ chỉ là tạm thời, sau đó sẽ được thay bằng hàng hóa việt nam rẻ hơn, ví dụ thế), but the lost business in China will be permanent (còn thiệt hại kinh tế của trung quốc là lâu dài). Furthermore, the medium-term adjustment will have the effect of making China’s main competitors better exporters (về trung hạn, các đối thủ của trung quốc sẽ thành nhà xuất khẩu tốt hơn).
And:
China has an industrial policy whose goal is to be competitive in these [branded goods] and other areas. Tariffs will limit profits for these companies and prevent Chinese products from achieving full economies of scale (thuế khiến cho các sản phẩm (công nghệ cao, thương hiệu) của trung quốc không đạt được tính kinh tế về quy mô). So this preemptive (chặn trước, phủ đầu) tariff strike will hurt the Chinese economy in the future, even if it doesn’t yet show up in the numbers.
Most generally:
In my numerous visits to China, I’ve found that the Chinese think of themselves as much more vulnerable than Americans to a trade war. I think they are basically correct, mostly because China is a much poorer country with more fragile political institutions (định chế chính trí yếu kém/mong manh, dễ vỡ).
...Returning to the bigger picture, to the extent you wish to criticize Trump’s policies, focus on what China may do as a result of its vulnerability, not America’s supposed lack of bargaining power in the struggle.
