video
Thư viện
Tài trợ
Liệu có chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ-Hoa?
26 May, 2018
Không.
phân tích của nhà kinh tế Tyler Cowen trên bloomberg.
-----
Will there be a trade war with China?
No.
Keep in mind that the U.S. is a relatively large buyer in many markets; in economic lingo, it has some monopsony (tình trạng độc mãi, thị trường một người mua) power. So if it cuts back purchases of, say, Chinese toys, China cannot simply reroute those now-surplus toys and sell them to Canada or Indonesia at the same price. This gives the U.S. significant (đáng kể) power in trade conflicts (xung đột thương mại). And China cannot throw around its weight as a buyer in similar fashion because it does not import on the same scale (quy mô).
The Chinese don’t have that many ready American targets (mục tiêu) for economic retaliation (trả đũa kinh tế). Aircraft (máy bay) are one of the major U.S. exports (hàng xuất khẩu) to China, where market demand (nhu cầu thị trường) for domestic flights (các chuyến bay nội địa) is rapidly growing. Beijing has a backlog (khối lượng đơn hàng) of about 400 orders (đơn đặt hàng) with the Boeing Co. It could try to switch some or all of those orders to Airbus SE, but that would mean delays (chậm giao hàng). Airbus would also know it could increase its prices and the Chinese would have to pay. As a buyer, China doesn’t have as much leverage in this market as it might appear.
The U.S. has many more targets when it comes to restricting foreign investment, as there is plenty of Chinese capital (vốn, tư bản) that would love to flee (đào thoát, bỏ chạy). The Chinese government already limits the activities of the big technology companies and many other U.S. multinationals in China, so they don’t have as many extra sticks in this regard.
The reality is China has margins for responding to the U.S., but they are mostly not in the economic realm.
-----
…start-ups are likely to be hit hardest, whether their products are made in China or they import components and do the final assembly work in the US.
“Your resistor or diode is already costing you 10 times what you’d pay if you were Apple,” said Mr Kelly. Slapping a tariff on these higher prices will add to the pain, he said. Companies such as Brilliant face the extra challenge of trying to price their products in a way that will generate demand in new markets that have yet to establish themselves.
…breaking into the mass market usually involves cutting the price, something that is now much harder.
-----
In the technology industry, hardware start-ups face some of the longest odds for success. Until they reach high enough volumes to strike better deals with suppliers and support the costs of brand marketing it is hard to make the economics work, and profit margins are notoriously low. “When you’re in hardware, a 25 per cent tariff can be a death knell to your business,” says Nate Kelly, a supply chain expert who now heads TrackR, a company that makes Bluetooth devices. The lack of a financial cushion or a diversified set of products means many companies will not be able to “ride this out for six months or a year”, he said.
Tổng hợp từ nhiều nguồn, có các thông số thế này về TQ:
1. Trái phiếu tư nhân 2019 bị phá sản dự đoán sẽ cao gấp 3 lần 2018.
2. Giảm dự trữ chính phủ nhiều lần trong năm 2018. Tháng 1 năm nay bơm thêm vào nền kinh tế 117 tỷ USD và mới nhất tháng 4 là 42 tỷ.
3. Tổng nợ TQ hiện là hơn 30 nghìn tỷ, gấp 2.5 lần GDP. Con số này của Mỹ là 1.1 lần.
4) Những năm gần đây, TQ vay nợ 60% GDP để kích cầu, mức này ngang với thời điểm Thế chiến 2.
TQ sẽ phải nhường bước thôi bởi trong ván poker này, Trump sẽ cứ tố tiền, cho đến khi hết phỉnh.