Ukraine chìm sâu vào suy thoái kinh tế

Đăng bởi lovebird21c - 05 Nov, 2016
Theo dõi journeyinlife.net trên
xuất khẩu giảm 19%, công ty máy báy Antonov thiệt hại 150 triệu usd do không xuất khẩu được máy bay tầm trung An-18 cho Không lực Nga, GDP giảm 5% so với năm ngoái, lạm phát hơn 14%, quỹ dự trữ ngoại hối giảm vì bảo vệ đồng nội tệ, lương thực tế giảm mạnh, nợ chính phủ tăng gấp 4 lần kể từ năm 2008, vì tái cấp vốn cho hệ thống ngân hàng, nợ công có thể tăng lên 70% năm nay và 77% năm sau, cao hơn ngưỡng an toàn của IMF.

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Ukraine is now in recession. Deep economic ties with Russia have resulted in painful adjustments in recent months. The nation's exports are down some 19% from last year in dollar terms and expected to fall further. A great example of Ukraine's export challenges is the Antonov aircraft company known for its Soviet era large transport planes as well as other types of aircraft.

As the military cooperation with Russia ended, Antonov was in trouble. It had to take a $150 million hit recently by not delivering the medium-range An-148 planes to the Russian Air Force. The Russians will find a replacement for this aircraft, but in the highly competitive global aircraft market, it's far less likely that Antonov will find another client.

The nation's GDP is down almost 5% from a year ago and growth is expected to worsen, Ukraine's retail sales are falling at the rate we haven't seen since the financial crisis, industrial production is collapsing, inflation rate is running above 14% and will spike sharply from here in the next few months if the currency weakness persists, real wages are collapsing, in its attempts to defend the currency, Kiev has been using up its foreign exchange reserves.

Government debt (including guarantees such as NBU liabilities to the IMF) to GDP has quadrupled since 2008, reflecting exchange rate depreciation, fiscal deficits, low growth and below-the-line costs such as recapitalisation of banks and Naftogaz. There is high dollarisation and foreign-currency exposure, making government solvency, banks' balance sheets and the overall economy vulnerable to sharp depreciation. This severe economic weakness is likely to cause public debt to rise to 70% this year and 77% next year, above the IMF’s “high-risk threshold” for debt sustainability...
Tags: ukraine

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