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In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists (nhà khoa học xã hội) have anticipated (dự đoán) that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur (báo trước, điềm báo) a reversal (đảo ngược, cơ cấu đảo chiều) of declining fertility trends (xu hướng giảm khả năng sinh sản). However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation (lời giải thích về kinh tế học) for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes (thay đổi cơ cấu) in U.S. labor markets (thị trường lao động) have prolonged  (kéo dài) the financial uncertainty (bất ổn tài chính) that leads women and couples to delay (lùi, hoãn) or forgo (thôi,  bỏ, kiêng) childbearing (sự sinh đẻ). Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006–2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition—specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses—have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time—in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate (dao động) with economic cycles (chu kỳ kinh tế) —further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

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