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Eugene Fama đã nói gì?
10 Nov, 2020
Fed (ngân hàng trung ương mỹ) cũng chỉ có tác dụng giải trí như... phim khiêu dâm thôi, ko quyền lực quá đâu (bán nợ ngắn hạn, mua nợ dài hạn, hoặc ngược lại... chẳng hiệu ứng thật nào, các câu chuyện khác nhau về việc giá cổ phiếu lên xuống chẳng qua là viết đại ra sau khi thực tế xảy ra vậy thôi)
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Excellent interview with Eugene Fama. The usual stuff on efficient markets but also
It’s not just the Fed, around the globe central banks are flooding the system with liquidity like never before. Is this a reason for concern?
Frankly, I think this is just posturing. Actually, the central banks don’t do anything real. They are issuing one form of debt to buy another form of debt. If you are an old Modigliani–Miller person the way I am, you think that’s a neutral activity: You’re issuing short-term debt to buy long-term debt or vice-versa. That’s not something that should have any real effects.
Then again, the financial markets sure seem to love it. At least it looks like that the S&P 500 is moving upwards in tandem with the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Every day we hear a story about the movement of stock prices. But the story is different each day. So basically, these stories are made up after the fact. But when we look at it systematically, we don’t see a big effect of Fed actions on real activity or on stock prices or on anything else. That’s why I use to say that the business of central banks is like pornography: In essence, it’s just entertainment and it doesn’t have any real effects.
I agree that people think the Fed is much more powerful than it is.
Bài trước: Dan Klein đã nói gì?
Tags: economics
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