Sri Lanka: nhà nước thất bại?

quản lý sai lầm, chính sách nông nghiệp 100% organic, liên tiếp gặp tác động: đại dịch covid-19 (khách du lịch giảm), nga xâm lược ukraine (giá lương thực tăng)...

china có tác động gì ko: có, chính sách ngoại giao bẫy nợ, tới 15% nợ nước ngoài của sri lanka là nợ china
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The economic crisis is a result of mismanagement (quản lý sai lầm) by the Rajapaksa administration (and its predecessors) as well as Sri Lanka’s vulnerability (dễ tổn thương) to external shocks (cú sốc từ bên ngoài). The pandemic (đại dịch) and Russia’s invasion (xâm lược) of Ukraine have had a devastating impact (tác động tàn phá). The Rajapaksas pursued populist (dân túy) economic policies (chính sách kinh tế) — including unaffordable (giá cao không chấp nhận được) fuel (nhiên liệu) and food subsidies and printing money to finance them — that spurred inflation. The president was heavily criticized for a disastrous “100% organic” policy that aimed to reduce the strain on foreign currency reserves by banning the import of chemical fertilizers (phân bón hóa học). The policy resulted in slashed (giảm mạnh) agricultural output at a time when food supplies were already running low and prices were soaring.


Meanwhile, foreign tourism (du lịch khách ngoại quốc) — a key source of jobs, economic growth, and foreign currency — fell after the 2019 Easter bombings and then collapsed during the pandemic (đại dịch). The spike in international commodity prices, which has been exacerbated  (làm trầm trọng thêm) by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has piled further economic pressure on Sri Lanka. The country relies heavily on imports of food, fuel, and other essential goods to feed the people and keep the lights on.

What role did China play?

Sri Lanka’s crisis is often blamed in part on China’s so-called “debt-trap diplomacy.” While it is true that Colombo has borrowed large sums of money from Beijing for infrastructure projects, China accounts for only about 10%-15% of Sri Lanka’s total external borrowings (although the share has risen in recent years). Private international investors hold just over half of it.

Beijing has supported Sri Lanka in the current crisis by providing a large currency swap agreement to temporarily bolster Colombo’s foreign exchange reserves. Still, it's just another loan. China has also allowed Sri Lanka to roll over some bilateral debt repayments but has yet to offer any debt forgiveness.

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Tags: economics

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