Lại quay về chính sách công nghiệp

kinh tế gia Tyler Cowen nói rằng chính sách công nghiệp là toàn cầu hóa mới, 

ví dụ, để Mỹ thành công với chính sách nội địa hóa sản xuất pin, thì cũng phải nhập lithium và các nguyên liệu thô khác; để thành công với năng lượng mặt trời phải dựa trên thành tựu từ Tây Ban Nha, Đức...

chính sách công nghiệp diễn ra trên bình diện nhiều nước, chứ chỉ trong nội địa một nước chỉ có thất bại...

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Industrial policy is the new globalization

It would be a mistake, however, to think that these [industrial] policies represent a move away from globalization. In fact they are an extension of globalization — and they likely will enable yet more globalization to come. That sounds counterintuitive, so let me explain.

Start with the domestic subsidies for green energy, as embodied in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act. Those policies favor domestic firms in industries such as electric vehicles, batteries, and solar power. You could call that nationalism or even mercantilism. Yet those subsidies rely not only on a prior history of globalization but also an expected future for globalization. To the extent the US is able to extend its domestic battery production, it is because more lithium and other raw materials can be produced overseas and exported to the US. To the extent the US succeeds with its domestic solar industry, it is by drawing upon earlier advances in Spain, Germany and China — and undoubtedly future advances to come.

Even the most successful “nationalistic” industrial policies rely on a highly globalized world. If carried out strictly on a one-nation basis, industrial policy is doomed to fail. Globalization has been so thorough, and has gone so well, that at least a little industrial policy is now thinkable for many nations.

And this:

Just as globalization can enable or support nationalist industrial policy, so the converse is true. Assume that these various industrial policies meet with some degree of success, and that China, the EU and the US all become more self-sufficient in various ways. Those same political units are more likely to then embrace and support further globalization…

Some conservatives criticize globalization while praising industrial policy. They are playing right into the hands of the Davos globalizing elite. In fact, that is the best argument for many of these ideas: Today’s industrial policy is not an alternative to globalization. It is preparing the world for the next round of it.