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Gấu với Putin
18 Apr, 2020
ả rập saudi trong cuộc chiến giá dầu với nga, sắp trở thành con nợ trong tương lai gần, kể cả khi giá dầu quay trở lại mức trên 80 usd/thùng,
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Take the net financial assets held by Saudi Arabia's government — central bank reserves, plus sovereign wealth fund assets, minus government debt. These declined to just 0.1% of gross domestic product from 50% over the four years through 2018 as crude plunged from levels of around $100 a barrel at the end of 2014. The kingdom is now likely to be a net debtor for the foreseeable future, even if prices rise back above $80.
Over the same four years, net financial assets held by the six Gulf monarchies fell by around half a trillion dollars, to around $2 trillion, according to a study last month by the International Monetary Fund. Even if peak oil demand doesn't hit until 2040, that remaining sum could be depleted by 2034, according to the Fund. Oil at $20 a barrel would run it down even faster, emptying the coffers as soon as 2027.
With oil prices in the range of $50 to $55 a barrel, Saudi Arabia's international reserves would fall to about five months of import coverage as soon as 2024, according to an IMF report last year. That should be a deeply alarming prospect, bringing the kingdom within months of an unthinkable balance-of-payments crisis (khủng hoảng cán cân thanh toán không thể tưởng tượng được) and the abandonment of the dollar peg (từ bỏ việc neo tỷ giá theo đồng đô-la), which has underpinned the global oil trade for a generation. Yet the prices we're now seeing make this look almost like an optimistic scenario.
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Tags: economics
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