Ruchir Sharma đã nói gì?

trưởng nhóm chiến lược toàn cầu tại Morgan Stanley Investment Management nói rằng: Việt Nam là 'phép màu châu Á'??
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...Last week the United States formally accused (chính thức lên án) Vietnam of currency manipulation (thao túng tiền tệ) and initiated the same type of investigation (điều tra) that triggered (gây ra, nổ súng, bóp cò) the tariff war (cuộc chiến về thuế nhập khẩu) with China.

An even bigger threat to Vietnam’s continuing growth is that the country has been ruled for nearly half a century by the same authoritarian party. With no opposition, autocrats can force very rapid growth, but often their unchecked (không kiểm soát) policy (chính sách) whims (ý chợt nảy ra; ý thích chợt nảy ra) and obsessions generate erratic (cử động, tính chất hoặc cách cư xử thất thường hoặc không đều; không đáng tin cậy; được chăng hay chớ) boom-and-bust cycles (chu kỳ tăng trưởng-suy thoái), which stall development. These hurdles (rào cản) make what Vietnam’s unusually competent autocracy has achieved so far all the more impressive — but also much more difficult to sustain.

One possible problem: After multiple rounds of privatization (tư nhân hóa, cổ phần hóa), the government owns many fewer companies, but those it still owns are huge and account for nearly a third of economic output — same as a decade ago. If trouble comes, these bloated (phồng lên, sưng lên, cồng kềnh) state companies (dnnn), which account for many of the bad loans (nợ xấu) in the banking system (hệ thống ngân hàng), are one place it could start.

It’s worth noting that rising debts also led to financial crises (khủng hoảng tài chính) that marked the end of sustained growth in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and now hang over China as well. So there are perils (hiểm họa, cơn nguy) on any development path.

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