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Former Federal Reserve head Alan Greenspan has a keen (mãnh liệt, thiết tha, kịch liệt) interest in men's underwear.

Not because he's preoccupied (bận tâm) with the evolving (tiến triển) fashions (thời trang) of nether garments (áo quần) — rather, he sees underwear sales as a key economic predictor (dự báo kinh tế).

Sounds weird, right? But it's just one of the many strange ways experts try to predict booms (bùng nổ) and busts (phá sản, vỡ nợ).

"He once told me that ... the garment that is most private is male underpants, because nobody sees it except people in the locker room, and who cares?" longtime NPR correspondent  (thông tin viên, phóng viên) Robert Krulwich said of Greenspan years ago. Those sales are usually stable, "so on those few occasions where it dips, that means that men are so pinched (keo kiệt, vắt cổ chày ra nước) that they are deciding not to replace underpants."

The men's underwear index (yes, it exists) backs up Greenspan's theory: US sales of men's underwear fell significantly from 2007 to 2009, during the Great Recession, but gained steam again in 2010 as the economy recovered.

Analysts are always searching for signs that might predict a downturn (suy sụp kinh tế). Just as a stampede of animals fleeing to higher ground can be an early sign of a tsunami, the same rules can be applied to the state of the economy.

Bài trước: Chống lạm phát là ưu tiến số một