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"Base rate fallacy" nghĩa là gì?
24 Dec, 2023
"Base rate fallacy" = sai lầm tỉ lệ cơ sở -> nghĩa là xu hướng mọi người đánh giá sai khả năng xảy ra tình huống vì không tính đến các dữ liệu liên quan.
Ví dụ
In behavioral finance, base rate fallacy is the tendency for people to erroneously (sai lầm) judge the likelihood of a situation by not taking into account all relevant data. Instead, investors might focus more heavily on new information without acknowledging (nhận biết) how this impacts original assumptions.
With strong ties to the concept (khái niệm) of base rate fallacy, overreaction to a market event is one such example. According to market efficiency, new information should rapidly be reflected instantly in a security's price.
The base rate fallacy is a kind of fallacy that is also known as base rate bias and base rate neglect. This kind of fallacy has information about the base rate and specific information. There can be ignorance (không biết) of base rate data in favor of individuating data.
The process of making a confusion matrix is followed by testing the model on the test data and the confusion matrix tells us about the number of right predictions and wrong predictions from the model. In the confusion matrix, the false-negative paradox (nghịch lý) and the false-positive paradox are examples of base rate fallacy.
Tags: phraseTrần Ngọc Lân
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