"Clustering illusion" nghĩa là gì?

lính cứu hỏa đến đâu là cháy nhà đến đấy... Photo by Daniel Tausis on Unsplash.

"Clustering illusion" = ảo giác đồng nhất -> nghĩa là nhận ra điểm giống nhau trong một chuỗi sự kiện hoàn toàn ngẫu nhiên; tư duy “đồng nhất tất cả”.

Ví dụ
The Texas Sharpshooter fallacy, also called as a clustering illusion, talks about how the human mind forces itself to find similarities that can be attributed to a common cause, while completely ignoring the differences and turning a blind eye to the probability of randomness.

A great example is that a large cluster of firemen correlates with higher property damage. Obviously these firemen are causing property damage. Or, do more damaging fires need more firemen? A similar one to avoid is the clustering illusion--sometimes random things cluster.

This tendency to see false patterns in randomness is called the Clustering Illusion. In business, you never have the complete information, yet leaders still have to make decisions. So they start seeing patterns where none exist. And all of the sudden, some completely unrelated market analysis, a few competitor press releases, and some customer feedback combine to justify a new strategic direction for your company.

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