"Over confidence bias" nghĩa là gì?

có nghề rồi... Photo by Conor Samuel on Unsplash.

'Over confidence bias' = định kiến quá tự tin -> nghĩa là tự đánh giá quá cao kinh nghiệm, chuyên môn của bản thân (không biết "điểm mù" của mình).

Ví dụ
Even the analysts (nhà phân tích) from the broking firms (công ty môi giới chứng khoán) who service the fund managers are human beings and they are exposed to the pitfalls (cạm bẫy, khó khăn không ngờ tới) of emotions (one example has been continuously over estimating the Nifty index’s earnings for the past 4-5 years in spite of being proved wrong for so many years. This might be over confidence bias or over optimistic bias).

Many investors (nhà đầu tư) tend to over-estimate (đánh giá quá cao) their investment expertise or forecasting skills (kỹ năng dự báo) which can lead to what is referred to as the ‘over-confidence’ bias. This bias can result in over-trading or blind spots (điểm mù) when it comes to identifying potential risks in one’s portfolio (danh mục đầu tư). In addition, investors who succumb to this bias often take credit for investment gains on the one hand, while blaming (đổ lỗi) external factors (yếu tố bên ngoài) for any investment losses (thua lỗ) – which, in turn, can result in them making even more over-confident predictions (dự đoán), leading to losses over the long-term.

The belief that one knows more than an experienced, qualified advisor is known as an over-confidence bias. In many instances, it’s a case of ‘you don’t know what you don’t know’ simply because financial planning (lập kế hoạch tài chính) is not your area of expertise, although you like to think it is. Over-confidence is demonstrated daily by investors who attempt to time the markets, despite overwhelming evidence that it is rarely a successful strategy. Whether it’s through over-confidence or lack of trust, not having an advisor who can guide you can result in bad financial decisions being made.

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