"Hindsight bias" nghĩa là gì?

Ví dụ

As it turned out, the pre-collapse (trước khi sụp đổ) peak on Feb. 19, 2020, was reclaimed by August 2020. The fastest 30% drop in history followed by such a rapid recovery was an indicator (chỉ dấu) that the bull market was far from over. This is not hindsight bias, but what we were discussing in real time as the market bottomed.

Those who say they saw this coming are guilty of hindsight bias, says Ritholtz Wealth Management’s Nick Maggiuli. Just days before stocks bottomed last March, he conducted (tiến hành) a Twitter poll asking how long it would take for the S&P 500 to hit new all-time highs. Most said it would take more than two years; only 11 per cent said it would be less than one year.

The Hindsight bias crowd is vocal about the 2020 United States elections and the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack. We should have seen it coming, they say, if only we’d monitored the correct news outlets, the internet, and conservative (thận trọng) media’s culture of outrage. I could have warned them, of course — I know the most American of all arts when I see it: the upside-down, funhouse-mirrored, wild-ride realities of carnivals (lễ hội).

Bài trước: "Survivorship bias" nghĩa là gì?