"Survivorship bias" nghĩa là gì?

Photo by Karim MANJRA on Unsplash

“Survivorship bias” = định kiến sống sót -> nghĩa là hiện tượng tâm lý về việc chúng ta chỉ nhìn thấy những người thành công, và nghĩ rằng đó là cả câu chuyện, mà không tính đến những người khác cũng áp dụng cách thức tương tự nhưng thất bại.

Ví dụ
The difference in returns can be explained by higher survivorship bias, which is more extreme in some indices than others. Hedge fund managers tend to report returns to data providers only when performance has been great, which introduces a backfill bias as some providers allow the inclusion of past realised returns.

Sell high and buy low; how hard could it be? Well, over the long run, really hard, and there is a lot of survivorship bias in this arena. Even Warren Buffet said most people will do better with a low-cost index fund. Does that mean that you should not own certain stocks that you like? No, it just means that your core strategy should give you the highest probability (xác suất) of success based on historical data. 

Survivorship bias adjustments (điều chỉnh) introduce biases of their own and can distort (xuyên tạc) the assessment of manager skill, concludes a new white paper, Rethinking Survivorship Bias in Active/Passive Comparisons, from the Investment Adviser Association’s Active Managers Council (AMC). The study illustrates the limitations of survivorship bias adjustments, when used to assess active manager skill and suggests investors reconsider their methodologies to achieve a more accurate assessment of that skill.

Anh Thư

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