"Gambler’s fallacy" nghĩa là gì?


"Gambler’s fallacy" = ảo tưởng của con bạc -> nghĩa là niềm tin cho rằng một sự việc sẽ ít có khả năng xảy ra trong tương lai vì nó thường xảy ra trong hiện tại, dù qua thống kê thì kết quả của một sự việc không hề ảnh hưởng đến những kết quả trong tương lai.

Ví dụ
Gambler’s Fallacy Can Create A False Sense (cảm tưởng sai lầm) Of Security With Risks Like COVID-19 Or Hurricanes (bão).

Using past performance as a guide is widely known as the gambler’s fallacy, i.e. feeling that a slot machine that hasn’t paid out in a while is ‘due’ for a big score. Previous studies have found that stock market traders (nhà đầu tư trên thị trường chứng khoán) are prone to this fallacy, with over 40% of portfolio choices based on the belief that a poorly performing stock was due for a rebound (phục hồi) compared to just 20% of choices based on ‘rational consideration.’ 

The Fund stands to benefit from DBi’s impressive decade-plus track-record of successfully replicating diversified portfolios of leading hedge funds using only liquid exchange-traded instruments. As a result, the Fund will be more liquid, transparent and attractively priced than a traditional hedge fund. DBi’s proprietary replication process seeks to outperform (làm tốt hơn) institutional-quality hedge funds while mitigating (giảm thiểu) three key investment risks (rủi ro đầu tư): market structure (illiquidity, trade crowding, counterparty); concentration (single fund, industry, geography); and human biases (selection bias and gambler’s fallacy).

Phạm Hạnh

Post a Comment

Tin liên quan

    Tài chính

    Trung Quốc