Journey in Life: 12/31/18

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Monday, December 31, 2018

Stuff I've Been Reading - 2018

năm nay bận quá, 1 quý 1 quyển :), cố gắng năm 2019 ra nghị quyết 1 tháng 1 quyển, các bạn nhỉ :)

from omega+, chúc các bạn kỳ nghỉ lễ giáng sinh và năm mới vui vẻ :)

"Zhixing heyi" nghĩa là gì?

= kết hợp kiến thức và hành động -> 'học đi đôi với làm', 'vừa học vừa hành'

henry paulson giới thiệu 'think and do tank' của mình về môi trường, và được thủ tướng lý khắc cường bút họa chữ này, dùng làm logo in trên danh thiếp và công văn/giấy tờ luôn

Bài trước: "Tie gongji" nghĩa là gì?

Thủ thuật đọc báo cáo tài chính
Đọc Dealing with China của Henry Paulson

Thủ thuật đọc báo cáo tài chính

chẳng có thủ thuật gì, enjoy như đọc một bản nhạc thôi :)

Jiang Jianqing - chủ tịch ngân hàng công thương TQ cũng có "khoái cảm" giống bạn mình @long phan, :)

Mô hình nào cho Trung Quốc?
Đọc Dealing with China của Henry Paulson

Mô hình nào cho Trung Quốc?

không thể cả tỷ người sống giống phương tây được: mùa hè điều hòa lạnh, mùa đông điều hòa nóng, tập thể dục trong phòng gym điều hòa, tắm nước nóng, đi ôtô điều hòa... -> thế giới không đủ tài nguyên, chu dung cơ nói.

-> và henry paulson mỉm cười khi nhớ đến cuộc họp tháng 2 ở trung nam hải, quần trong của chu dung cơ thò ra ngoài quần dài, điều mà ko lãnh đạo nước mỹ nào phải chịu :)
“Here we are,” he said. “It’s a hot summer day, but it’s cold in your offices because you’ve got the air-conditioning on. In the winter you’ve got the heat blasting out. For exercise you work out in air-conditioned gyms, then take hot showers, then get into air-conditioned cars. This is America! In China, we don’t live that way. We can’t afford to.

...“The world simply does not have enough resources to support another billion Chinese living the Western lifestyle,” he had noted. “We have to find a new model.”

I frankly thought he was right. As he spoke, I remembered that long-ago February meeting at Zhongnanhai during which I’d spied Zhu Rongji’s long underwear sticking out under his pant cuffs—a precaution against the cold that our pampered leaders would never have to take.

Trang phục khi dự hội nghị

cẩn thận,

mùa đông rét mướt, có quên áo khoác cũng không dám mặc áo do chủ nhà đưa cho như henry paulson ở trung quốc :D
For SED III the Chinese officials had, as usual, planned lavish (phong phú, hậu hĩ) entertainment. Wu Yi personally oversaw the preparations, right down to the elaborate (kỹ lưỡng, công phu, trau chuốt, tinh xảo) carvings (nghệ thuật khắc/tạc/chạm) made from vegetables that decorated the tables. The festivities included fireworks (pháo hoa) that were spectacular (đẹp mắt, ngoạn mục; hùng vĩ, kỳ lạ) even by Chinese standards—what we in the U.S. would consider a thrilling finale exploded for an hour over Grand Epoch City. I had forgotten to bring my overcoat (áo bành tô, áo choàng, áo khoác ngoài), and I felt my teeth chattering (răng va lập cập) by the time the display got under way. As gifts for this cold-weather gathering, the Chinese had given our delegation (phái đoàn) thickly padded and belted Red Army coats (ào choàng hồng quân) with fur collars and star-stamped brass buttons. I craved the warmth but didn’t dare put mine on. What a photo that would have made: the U.S. Treasury secretary dressed like a Red Army soldier! Talk about the Manchurian candidate (ứng cử viên mãn châu lý). (I did keep the coat and wear it today when I walk in wintertime on the prairie near our Illinois home, where the only paparazzi are deer and coyotes (sói đồng cỏ).)

Niềm vui của ptt Ngô Nghi

được tổng thống bush con hôn ở phòng bầu dục ;), 4 năm sau vẫn còn âm ỉ... :))
President Bush knew how to turn on the charm. As we walked down the steps of the Executive Office Building and toward the West Wing, he guided her between us, and we each held a hand as photographers snapped our picture. Once in the Oval Office, he talked with Wu Yi about U.S.-China relations and the importance of her role, then made a point of posing for pictures with her. Then, as our private meeting ended, he took her by the hands, bent down, and kissed her good-bye. Wu Yi didn’t say anything that day, but four years later, hosting a lunch for me in Beijing, she recounted with a twinkle in her eye, “I’ve met with a number of foreign leaders, but that was the first time I’ve ever been kissed in the Oval Office.”

"Mùa đông không lạnh" của Chu Dung Cơ

là những ngày tán bạn gái (sau này là vợ) ở thư viện đại học thanh hoa (được ví là MIT của tq),

ông sáng lập trường quản lý và kinh tế thuộc đh thanh hoa, là viện trưởng trường này từ năm 1984 cho đến sau này kể cả khi làm thủ tướng,

mời henry paulson làm ceo của trường, hãy xem henry gọi điện mời những ai vào board và làm visiting profs :)
China needed topflight business schools to lead the way, but Premier Zhu had concerns about the program at Tsinghua University, known as the MIT of China, and asked if I would evaluate the school and come back to him with ideas for improvement. John Thornton, by then president and co–chief operating officer of Goldman, encouraged me to take on the challenge. We both knew how crucial improving management was—and how devoted Zhu was to Tsinghua, his alma mater. Not only had he graduated in 1951 with a degree in electrical engineering, but he also had courted his wife there, spending long hours with her in the library, one of the few heated buildings on campus during Beijing’s bitterly cold winters.

Tsinghua’s School of Economics and Management (SEM) in 1984 and continued as dean even after becoming premier

...I worked the phone, inviting prominent business leaders to join the board, CEOs like Eastman Kodak Company’s George Fisher, BP Amoco’s John Browne, and Nokia’s Jorma Ollila. I reached out to Irwin Jacobs of Qualcomm, Masayoshi Son of Japan’s SoftBank Corporation, and Victor Fung of the Hong Kong manufacturing and sourcing giant Li & Fung. Hank Greenberg of American International Group, Nobuyuki Idei of Sony Corporation, Marjorie Yang of Esquel Group, Chris Galvin of Motorola, Claude Bébéar of AXA, Lee Scott of Wal-Mart Stores, and Richard Li, CEO of Pacific Century CyberWorks, would also join.

Chu Vĩnh Khang nói gì với Bush cha

"cả đời tôi là người làm/bán dầu, và bạn luôn có thể tin tưởng một người làm/bán dầu" :))
China Telecom’s listing code number on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 941. These numbers, as pronounced in Chinese, mean “survival in the midst of dangers.”

We invited Zhou and his colleagues to visit us in the States and arranged a meeting with the former president through his cousin George Herbert Walker IV, who worked in Goldman’s asset management division. On February 12 John Thornton, Mike Evans, and I flew down to Houston. We met Zhou at the former president’s office. President Bush’s son Neil greeted us and then took us to see the president. Zhou beamed, calling Bush an old friend of China. The president had founded Zapata, an oil driller, in the 1950s, and served as the head of the U.S. Liaison Office in Beijing in 1974–1975 before normalization of relations. “I’ve been an oilman all my life,” Zhou told President Bush, “and you can always trust an oilman.”

“Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell,” (chủ nghĩa tư bản mà không có phá sản thì cũng như công giáo không có địa ngục) Frank Borman, the former astronaut turned CEO of Eastern Air Lines, once quipped.

Đọc Dealing with China của Henry Paulson

một trong những phi vụ đầu tiên của goldman sachs ở trung hoa đại lục là bán star tv của l. k. shing cho rupert murdoch,
Chen was known for his “birdcage” (lồng chim) theory, which proposed that the free market in China should have just enough freedom to fly like a bird inside the bars of a planned economy.

As it turned out, one of the first significant deals we did in Hong Kong took place shortly afterward when we helped Richard Li sell Star TV to Rupert Murdoch.

John turned for help to Brian Griffiths, who was vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International. Lord Griffiths sat on the board of Times Newspaper Holdings, the parent company of Murdoch’s Times in London. The three had dinner, and John managed over the next few weeks to bring Richard and Rupert to a meeting of the minds, while keeping Pearson PLC, a rival U.K. media conglomerate, in play as a competing bidder. The deal, announced in July 1993, had Murdoch buying 63.6 percent of HutchVision Limited, the parent of Star TV, for about $525 million. (He would buy the remainder two years later.) The deal was a stunner.

link buy amazon, đây,

Ác mộng Huawei đối với an ninh của Mỹ và đồng minh

6 lý do

There could be “kill switches” (tắt điện khẩn cấp) in Huawei equipment …
The Chinese firm is the world’s largest manufacturer of things like base stations and antennas that mobile operators use to run wireless networks. And those networks carry data that’s used to help control power grids, financial markets, transport systems, and other parts of countries’ vital infrastructure. The fear is that China’s military and intelligence services could insert software or hardware “back doors” into Huawei’s gear that they could exploit to degrade or disable foreign wireless networks in the event of a crisis. This has led to moves in the US to block Chinese equipment from being used.

... that even close inspections miss
Back doors could be used for data snooping

...The rollout of 5G wireless networks will make everything worse
As well as speeding up data transfers, 5G networks will enable self-driving cars to talk to each other and to things like smart traffic lights. They’ll also connect and control a vast number of robots in factories and other locations. And the military will use them for all kinds of applications, too. This will dramatically expand the number of connected devices—and the chaos that can be caused if the networks supporting them are hacked. It will also ramp up the amount of corporate and other data that hackers can target. 

Chinese firms will ship tech to countries in defiance of a US trade embargo
Huawei isn’t as immune to Chinese government influence as it claims to be

Chưởng lực của Cái bang Trump béo

shared from fb nguyen duc thanh,
Chưởng lực của Cái Bang Trăm Béo.

Thị trường chứng khoán Tàu mất 1/4 số điểm trong năm 2018, tương đương 2,3 nghìn tỷ Mỹ kim. Để các bạn hình dung con số này có ý nghĩa thế nào, tôi xin lấy một vài so sánh. Nó gần bằng GDP của Ấn Độ nước có 1,4 tỷ dân, bằng hai lần GDP của Indonesia - nước có dân số và GDP lớn nhất ASEAN. Nó cũng bằng khoảng 10 lần GDP của Việt Nam và bằng gần 40 lần dự trữ ngoại hối của Việt Nam.

Việc chứng khoán giảm mạnh thế này sẽ ít nhiều ảnh hưởng đến quy mô tài sản của các cá nhân và doanh nghiệp, và vì thế có thể lan toả sang cả các ngân hàng. Tuy nhiên, thảm hoạ đối với hệ thống ngân hàng Tàu chỉ xảy ra khi giá bất động sản bắt đầu suy sụp. Cái này thì hiện chính phủ Tàu vẫn đang phải chống đỡ bằng mọi giá. Và đến được khi nào thì chưa ai biết.

Sự giảm điểm của thị trường chứng khoán, tiếc thay, không phải là kết cục, mà mới chỉ sự khởi đầu. Vì thị trường Ck phản ánh kỳ vọng (chạy trước) về nền kinh tế. Điều ấy có nghĩa là sự suy giảm của nền kinh tế thực mới chỉ bắt đầu.

Điều này cho thấy Tập Cận Bình hầu như không còn gì để đàm phán với Trump. Chỉ có bó tay cúi đầu trong các cuộc đàm phán sắp tới mà thôi.

For China’s stock investors (nhà đầu tư) and forecasters (nhà dự báo/phân tích kinh tế), 2018 has been a gloomy (tối tăm, u ám, ảm đạm) year marked by unwelcoming (không được hoan nghênh) milestones (sự kiện/mốc quan trọng).

The benchmark (chuẩn, tiêu chuẩn, làm chuẩn) Shanghai Composite Index is 25 percent below where it started this year, making it the worst-performing major stock market in the world. The breakout of a trade war between the U.S. and China has wiped out $2.4 trillion this year, while a deleveraging drive has squeezed margin debt to just one-third of its peak in 2015.

While foreign investors continued to pour money into onshore equities via the stock connects and state funds were said to have bought exchange-traded funds to rescue shares, they did little to arrest declines. There was no place to hide with even the safe-havens losing ground, as the weak Chinese economy hurt spending and weighed on consumer stocks, while a vaccine scandal and a gene-editing controversy sparked a sell-off in the health-care sector.

Ngạc nhiên chưa
Đừng ngạc nhiên

Số hóa hệ thống y tế

lợi ích là quá rõ rệt,

newt gringrich nói là tổng thống trump nên mời visa, mastercard, và american express thiết kế hệ thống số hóa cho medicare để phát hiện gian lận trong thời gian thực, như đối với ngành thẻ tín dụng.
thuốc trị ung thư cổ và đầu mất 28 năm mới được phê chuẩn
(One of the drugs Abigail was requesting was called Erbitux. It was invented in 1983, when she was a toddler. The FDA didn’t clear the drug for late-stage head and neck cancer like Abigail’s until 2011, ten years after she died at age twenty-one. It took twenty-eight years to approve. How many Americans have died unnecessarily as a result of this one federal bureaucracy?)

...The vision for a digital health system is for patients to be able to control all their own health data, and for them to enable any doctor or provider in the country access to that information at his or her discretion. This would eliminate duplicate care and time spent filling out and processing paperwork. It could be achieved through a smart card system similar to ATMs. Fully digital systems for claims submission, insurance eligibility verification, and most other interactions between payers and providers would eliminate enormous costs and speed access to care. Hospitals could take most of the money they spend on administration and divert it to hiring doctors and nurses. Digital systems would also allow for the use of big data to discover other inefficiencies, quickly identify pandemics, and create a process of perpetual learning so doctors and providers can constantly migrate toward best practices.

President Trump should enlist Visa, MasterCard, and American Express to design a digital system for Medicare billing that allows the detection of fraud in real time, similar to the credit card industry. States should do the same for their Medicaid programs.

Người có thẻ BHYT được hưởng thêm nhiều quyền lợi

chính sách/mô hình: thu phí thường niên đối với bệnh nhân,

chính quyền/bang làm việc với các công ty bảo hiểm để phân biệt chi phí của bệnh nhân "ốm yếu" nhất, từ đó phí bảo hiểm của tất cả mọi người được giảm, bang cũng trợ cấp chi phí cho những bệnh nhân "ốm yếu" nhất này,

-> với những người độ tuổi 20: chi phí bảo hiểm giảm 5.000 usd/năm; những người độ tuổi 60: tiết kiệm được 7.000 usd/năm
Doctors’ offices are also embracing economic models that emphasize keeping people healthy rather than the quantity of visits and procedures. Some practices have stopped taking insurance and instead charge an annual membership fee for patients. In this model, doctors are incentivized to keep people healthy.

The model is called an “invisible” high-risk pool because customers don’t know if they are part of the pool or not. To them, it is just regular insurance. Five percent of patients consume 50 percent of all health care resources. The state works with insurers to separate out the costs of the sickest patients, so that the premiums of everyone else are dramatically lowered. The state then subsidizes the expenses of the sickest patients. Since the adoption of this program, premiums for those in their early twenties have dropped by almost $5,000 per year, while older customers in their sixties have seen savings of more than $7,000 per year.

Đọc Understanding Trump của Newt Gingrich

bạn sẽ biết, Trump hỏi kinh nghiệm newt gringrich tranh cử tổng thống tốn hết bao tiền, trả lời 70-80 triệu usd 

-> 'oh, chỉ bằng giá một cái du thuyền, mà nhộn hơn nhiều' :)
In a very Trump-the-businessman way, he said, “So, what’s the bottom line?” I thought for a minute and said he could be competitive for about $70 to $80 million. His response was priceless (vô giá, không định giá được; rất nực cười, khôi hài, lố bịch). After a moment of thought, he said, “$70 to 80 million: that would be a yacht (du thuyền, thuyền buồm nhẹ). This would be a lot more fun than a yacht!” That’s when Callista and I learned that a Trump candidacy was likely—and a Trump presidency was possible.

...In the last week of the election, the Trump campaign decided to go to Minneapolis. The Democrats and the national media immediately thought this was a foolish, rookie (lính mới, tân binh) mistake, because Trump had little hope of winning Minnesota. So, Hillary didn’t follow him to Minneapolis. What the Left—and apparently, the entire Washington press corps—didn’t know is that Minneapolis television covers central Wisconsin. Trump got all the coverage of central Wisconsin without putting Wisconsin on the Democrats’ radar. So it was the smaller, less expensive, practical Trump team that figured out how to get the keys to the American political system.

...It goes like this: The president must be a lion. Lions cannot hunt chipmunks (sóc chuột), because even if they catch them the lions will starve to death. Instead, lions must hunt antelopes (linh dương) —big animals—to survive.

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"Thick as mince" nghĩa là gì?

Korean dumpling. Photo courtesy Chloe Lim.

'Thick as mince' có từ mince là thịt băm, thịt thái nhỏ -> cụm từ này nghĩa là rất ngu, thậm ngu, tối dạ, ngốc nghếch, dốt đặc; não mỏng.

Ví dụ
The former head of the Vote Leave campaign has branded the Brexit Secretary as “thick as mince” and “as lazy as a toad”.

Despite the toddler temper tantrums among Lefties whenever the name Trump is mentioned, despite the curled lip and sneer from BBC news reporters, the shrieking protest marches from thick-as-mince unwashed millennials, despite all that, I’ll bet you now that Donald Trump gets re-elected. But don’t expect to hear much about any of this on the BBC’s News at Ten.

Nobody voted for the unelected bureaucrats trying to impose this scheme. No one but a few, self-serving, public health lobbyists and the odd virtue-signalling- or thick-as-mince celebrity chef believes the government has any business restricting our freedoms to eat what we want when we want. Why, then, must this extreme minority view of a few meddling bansturbators become our national policy?

Phạm Hạnh

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